Baselines and targets: how do you set them honestly?
Nov 14 2026 · Planning
How to set baselines and targets honestly: sources, evidence, no-baseline options, and what to do when targets change.
A baseline is the value of an indicator before your programme starts; a target is the value you commit to by a set date. Set a baseline from a measurement, an administrative record, or a clearly dated retrospective reconstruction. Set a target from evidence: past performance, a comparable programme, a published benchmark, or a donor requirement. If no baseline exists, use a retrospective record, a rapid baseline dated honestly, or a comparison group, and report change only from the first measurement. Never invent a baseline to fill a box. Document the source and date, and if a target changes, record why.
What is a baseline and what is a target?
A baseline is the value of an indicator before your programme starts. A target is the value you commit to by a set date. The baseline measures change; the target judges performance. Both need a source and a date.
| Baseline | Target |
|---|---|
| The value before the programme starts | The value you commit to by a set date |
| Measured, recorded, or reconstructed | Set from evidence, not optimism |
| Used to measure change | Used to judge performance |
| If missing, use a retrospective record or first measurement | If missing, set a defensible target from evidence |
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Written for M&E professionals. Not a guarantee of accuracy — always verify every claim against its source, and let a named human sign off. Get the free handbook.