How to build a theory of change in 60 minutes (with a worked example)
Oct 12 2026 · Templates
A timed, one-page process for producing a theory of change a donor will accept — with a worked example, a logframe comparison and a review checklist.
To build a theory of change in 60 minutes, work backwards from impact and keep everything on one page. Spend 10 minutes listing activities, 10 on outputs, 15 on outcomes and impact, 15 on the assumptions that link each step, and 10 on layout and a review pass. Write assumptions on the arrows, not in a footnote. The test is falsifiability: for every arrow, could you design an evaluation that would show it failing? If not, the arrow is too vague to be useful. A worked example and a logframe comparison follow.
What is a theory of change in one sentence?
It is a short causal argument: if we do these activities, these outputs appear, which produce these outcomes, which contribute to this impact — and here is what must hold true at each step.
The valuable part is not the boxes. It is the assumptions written on the arrows between them.
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Written for M&E professionals. Not a guarantee of accuracy — always verify every claim against its source, and let a named human sign off. Get the free handbook.