What is a theory of change? A worked example you can copy
Oct 07 2026 · Templates
A worked theory of change example: four levels, the assumptions on each arrow, and a checklist to test whether yours is honest.
A theory of change is a short if–then chain that links what you do to the change you seek, with the assumptions written on the arrows. Build one by listing your activities, the outputs they produce, the outcomes those outputs cause, and the impact you ultimately want — then write, at each step, the assumption that must hold for the next step to follow. A useful theory of change fits on one page and names its risks. The test is simple: could you design an evaluation that would show a given arrow is wrong? If not, you have a slogan, not a theory.
What is a theory of change in one sentence?
A theory of change is a causal chain: if we do these activities, they produce these outputs, which lead to these outcomes, which contribute to this impact — provided the assumptions on each arrow hold.
It is not a diagram for a funding proposal. It is a working hypothesis about how change happens, and it should be falsifiable.
What are the four levels of a theory of change?
- Activities — what you actually do, such as delivering training or distributing cash transfers.
- Outputs — the countable products of those activities, such as 200 people trained or 500 transfers made.
- Outcomes — the change in behaviour, knowledge or conditions, such as participants applying new skills at work.
- Impact — the longer-term difference you seek, such as reduced household poverty.
Keep each level to a handful of items. A theory of change with 40 boxes is a filing cabinet, not a theory.
Why do the assumptions matter more than the boxes?
The value sits on the arrows. Between training delivered and practice changed, the assumption might be that staff have the authority to change how they work. If that assumption fails, the theory fails — and that is exactly what your evaluation should test.
If you cannot imagine evidence that would disprove an arrow, it is not a theory. It is a slogan.
Worked example: a youth employment programme
Here is a one-page theory of change for a fictional programme that trains young people and places them in jobs. The assumptions are the honest part.
| Level | Example | Assumption on the arrow |
|---|---|---|
| Activities | Deliver a six-week employability course | Young people can attend consistently |
| Outputs | 120 participants complete the course | Completion reflects learning, not just attendance |
| Outcomes | Participants secure and keep jobs | Local employers are hiring and will consider these candidates |
| Impact | Higher household income and stability | Jobs pay enough and last long enough to change household finances |
Notice that none of the assumptions are about the programme's effort. They are about the world the programme operates in. That is where theories of change usually break.
How is a theory of change different from a logic model or logframe?
| Tool | What it shows | Best used for |
|---|---|---|
| Theory of change | Causal chain plus assumptions and risks | Designing and testing a strategy |
| Logic model | Inputs, activities, outputs and outcomes in a linear diagram | Communicating a programme on one page |
| Logframe | Objectives, indicators, means of verification and assumptions | Contracting and reporting to a donor |
They overlap. A logframe is a reporting tool; a theory of change is a thinking tool. You can build a logframe from a theory of change, but not the other way round. If you need a starting point, see our logframe template for Google Sheets.
Checklist: is your theory of change good enough?
- It fits on one page.
- Every arrow has a written assumption.
- Each assumption is something you could test with evidence.
- Outcomes describe change in people or systems, not activities you deliver.
- Impact is stated as a contribution, not a claim of sole attribution.
- Someone outside the programme can read it and explain it back to you.
- It names at least one risk that would make the whole chain fail.
How do you test a theory of change?
Turn each assumption into an evaluation question. If the assumption is that employers will hire your graduates, the question is whether they do, and why or why not. That becomes your outcome indicator and your data collection plan.
You do not need to test everything at once. Pick the two or three assumptions that carry the most weight. If they hold, the theory is plausible. If they fail, you have learned something more useful than a positive report. An evaluation plan keeps those tests on schedule.
What are the most common mistakes?
- Writing outcomes as activities, such as deliver workshops.
- Leaving assumptions implicit, so failure looks like bad luck.
- Making the chain too long to test.
- Treating the theory as fixed rather than revisable.
- Confusing impact with attribution — you contribute to impact, you rarely own it.
Where can you build one quickly?
A one-page theory of change is easier to maintain than a 20-page strategy. If you want a structured place to draft the chain, the assumptions and the indicators that test them, the M&E Framework Builder walks you through it. You can also browse the wider tools index if you are still choosing.
Written for M&E professionals. Not a guarantee of accuracy — always verify every claim against its source, and let a named human sign off. Get the free handbook.